Outcome Blindness

Judge Lehman banged her gavel, demanding silence.

"One more outburst and I will find you all in contempt." The watchers reluctantly sat back down, their grumbles still filling the room. The judge asked the defendant to continue.

"As I was saying, the numbers clearly indicated there was an overwhelming likelihood the conflict would be resolved with a minimal loss of life. We forecast there was only a tenth of a percent chance we'd have more than 100 casualties."

The prosecuting attorney pressed on. "Over three million citizens died."

"Yes, but this was an extreme outlier. You obviously don't understand statistics."